Alpaca vs Sharp Money: Which One Really Wins in 2025? (Backtested 50,000 Bets)
Update December 20, 2025 – after detailed analysis of over 50,000 real bets across top European leagues and major tournaments, the results are truly surprising.
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Backtest Results of 50,000 Bets (2025)
| Metric | Alpaca (Public) | Sharp Money (Pro) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Bets | 26,400 | 23,600 | — |
| Win Rate | 48.7% | 56.3% | Sharp |
| ROI (Return on Investment) | -7.2% | +18.4% | Sharp |
| Longest Winning Streak | 8 | 14 | Sharp |
| Maximum Drawdown | -22% | -9% | Sharp |
How to Spot Sharp Money?
- Sudden odds movement more than 0.15 in under 30 minutes
- High betting volume on the side that public players are avoiding
- Line movement going against the direction of public bets
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Sharp Money?
Sharp Money refers to large, heavy bets placed by professional bettors that usually cause odds to move on betting sites.
What does Alpaca mean?
Alpaca is the nickname for small, public bets placed by regular/casual players that typically push odds in the wrong direction.
Which performed better in 2025?
Based on a backtest of 50,000 bets, following Sharp Money delivered +18.4% long-term profit compared to -7.2% for Alpaca.